Probability (8300 - Foundation - Probability)

Topic:Probability

Specification references (in recommended teaching order)

Specification content Specification notes
P2
  • Apply ideas of randomness, fairness and equally likely events to calculate expected outcomes or multiple future experiments


    P3
    • Relate relative expected frequencies to theoretical probability, using appropriate language and the 0 – 1 probability scale


      P5
      • Understand that empirical unbiased samples tend towards theoretical probability distributions with increasing sample size


        P6
        • Enumerate sets and combinations of sets systematically using tables, grids, Venn diagrams and tree diagrams


          P8
          • Calculate the probability of independent and dependent combined events, including using tree diagrams and other representations, and know the underlying assumptions

          • know when to add and when to multiply two or more probabilities


          The subject content (above) matches that set out in the Department for Education’s Mathematics GCSE subject content and assessment objectives document.

          The expectation is that:

          • All students will develop confidence and competence with the content identified by standard type
          • All students will be assessed on the content identified by the standard and the underlined type; more highly attaining students will develop confidence and competence with all of this content
          • Only the more highly attaining students will be assessed on the content identified by bold type. The highest attaining students will develop confidence and competence with the bold content.

          Teaching resources

          Probability - all resources for 3 year route map - zip folder
          Downloadable resource in zip format. 03/10/2014
          Topic overview and lesson plans
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 03/10/2014

          Lesson 1 Activity 1
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 15/07/2014
          Lesson 2 Activity 1
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 14/07/2014
          Lesson 2 Activity 2
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 13/07/2014
          Lesson 3 Activity 1
          `12/07/2014
          Lesson 3 Activity 2
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 11/07/2014
          Lesson 5 Activity 1
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 10/07/2014
          Lesson 5 Activity 2
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 09/07/2014
          Lesson 6 Activity 1
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 08/07/2014

          Lesson 1 Worksheet 2
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 15/07/2014
          Lesson 1 Worksheet 3
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 14/07/2014
          Lesson 3 Worksheet 1
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 13/07/2014
          Lesson 3 Worksheet 2
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 12/07/2014
          Lesson 3 Worksheet 3
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 11/07/2014
          Lesson 3 Worksheet 4
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 10/07/2014
          Lesson 3 Worksheet 5
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 09/07/2014
          Lesson 5 Worksheet 1
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 08/07/2014
          Lesson 6 Worksheet 1
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 07/07/2014
          Lesson 7 Worksheet 1
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 06/07/2014
          Lesson 8 Worksheet 1
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 05/07/2014
          Lesson 8 Worksheet 2
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 04/07/2014
          Lesson 8 Worksheet 3
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 03/07/2014

          Lesson 1 Homework 1
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 15/07/2014
          Lesson 2 Homework 1
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 14/07/2014
          Lesson 3 Homework 1
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 13/07/2014
          Lesson 4 Homework 1
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 12/07/2014
          Lesson 5 Homework 1
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 11/07/2014

          Diagnostic Questions - probability 1
          AQA have teamed up with Craig Barton's Diagnostic Questions website to share free diagnostic question assessment for the 2017 GCSE Maths qualification.27/04/2017
          Diagnostic Questions - probability 2
          AQA have teamed up with Craig Barton's Diagnostic Questions website to share free diagnostic questions assessment for the 2017 GCSE Maths qualification.27/04/2017
          Diagnostic Questions - probability 3
          AQA have teamed up with Craig Barton's Diagnostic Questions website to share free diagnostic question assessment for the 2017 GCSE Maths qualification.27/04/2017

          Probability Investigation
          Probability investigation lesson plan 29/08/2014

          Equally Likely Outcomes
          Card sorting activity29/08/2014
          Equally Likely Outcomes card sort
          Students must sort the cards into two piles dependent on whether they describe equally likely outcomes or not. You will need to register for a TES account to access this resource, this is free of charge. 05/08/2015
          Ice Cream
          Interactive probability activity29/08/2014
          Maths is Fun: Tree diagrams
          An introduction to tree diagrams, including independent and dependent events, followed by ten online questions.05/08/2015
          Nrich: Stop or Dare
          A card game in which students determine an optimal strategy for playing the game.05/08/2015
          Probability Investigation
          Probability investigation lesson plan 29/08/2014
          Probability Jigsaw
          TARSIA probability jigsaw 29/08/2014
          Teachit Maths - Drawing Pin Probability Experiment
          Student carry out an experiment in which they calculate the experimental probability of the pin landing 'pin up' or 'pin down'. This activity can be extended by recording the cumulative results after 10, 20, 30, 40 etc… trials and plotting the relative frequency at each stage as a line graph - this will show how the relative experimental frequency settles down to a long term theoretical probability.05/08/2015
          Three Scores
          In this dice game, each player has a different way of scoring. Students use sample space diagrams to predict who will win, then test their predictions!05/08/2015
          Transum Dice Bingo
          A classic mathematical game in which students choose their own bingo numbers and cross them off if they occur as the total of two dice.05/08/2015
          Transum: Ice Cream
          Students investigate how many ways a two scoop ice cream could be made from 6 possible flavours.05/08/2015
          Transum: Venn Diagrams
          A starter activity introducing the idea of a Venn diagram through the use of prime, square and even numbers.05/08/2015
          Venn Diagram Match Up Activity Sheet
          Activity in which students use match statements to various shaded Venn diagrams. You will need to register for a TES account to access this resource, this is free of charge. 05/08/2015
          Venn Diagrams
          Interactive Venn diagram activity 29/08/2014
          Venn Diagrams
          Venn diagram activity29/08/2014

          Transum: Ice Cream
          Students investigate how many ways a two scoop ice cream could be made from 6 possible flavours.05/08/2015
          Transum: Venn Diagrams
          A starter activity introducing the idea of a Venn diagram through the use of prime, square and even numbers.05/08/2015

          Transum: Venn Diagrams
          A starter activity introducing the idea of a Venn diagram through the use of prime, square and even numbers.05/08/2015

          And/Or Rule
          And/Or rule worksheet 29/08/2014
          Basic Introduction to Tree Diagrams
          A very straightforward introduction to tree diagrams involving a powerpoint and worksheet. You will need to register for a TES account to access this resource, this is free of charge. 05/08/2015
          CIMT: Theoretical and Experimental Probabilities
          Online exercise in which students compare experimental and theoretical probabilities in various scenarios.05/08/2015
          Probability Tree Diagrams
          Tree diagrams interactive worksheet29/08/2014
          Sample Space Diagram Worksheet
          A comprehensive worksheet of eight increasingly difficult sample space questions. You will need to register for a TES account to access this resource, this is free of charge. 05/08/2015
          Sample Space Diagrams
          Sample space diagrams worksheet 29/08/2014
          Teachit maths - Sample Space Scenarios
          Four questions in which sample spaces are used to represent scenarios and to find probabilities.05/08/2015
          The AND/OR rules
          A worksheet of questions where students must apply and 'AND' and 'OR' rules to find probabilities. You will need to register for a TES account to access this resource, this is free of charge. 05/08/2015
          Tree Diagrams
          Tree diagrams worksheet 29/08/2014
          Venn Diagrams
          Venn diagrams worksheets 29/08/2014

          Probability Revision Quiz
          Probability revision quiz29/08/2014

          Ice Cream
          Interactive probability activity29/08/2014
          Probability Jigsaw
          TARSIA probability jigsaw 29/08/2014
          Probability Revision Quiz
          Probability revision quiz29/08/2014
          Two Dice Bingo
          Probability bingo game 29/08/2014

          Maths Dictionary
          Illustrated Maths dictionary 29/08/2014

          Lesson plan - Probability
          Lesson on relative frequency compared to theoretical probability14/05/2010
          Probability - Bag of Counters - Problem Sheet
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 06/05/2010
          Probability - Dice outcomes - Worksheet
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 12/05/2010
          Probability - Game grid 1 - Worksheet
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 11/05/2010
          Probability - Game grid 2 - Worksheet
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 10/05/2010
          Probability - Homework sheet 1
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 05/05/2010
          Probability - Homework sheet 2
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 04/05/2010
          Probability - Homework Sheet 3
          Relative frequency, theoretical probability and their relationship03/05/2009
          Probability - Spinners - Problem Sheet
          Downloadable resource in doc format. 07/05/2010

          Topic Tests

          8300 GCSE Foundation Frequency Trees Mark Scheme
          Downloadable resource in pdf format. 09/09/2022
          8300 GCSE Foundation Frequency Trees Topic Test
          Downloadable resource in pdf format. 09/09/2022
          8300 GCSE Foundation Sample Space and Tree Diagrams Mark Scheme
          Downloadable resource in pdf format. 09/09/2022
          8300 GCSE Foundation Sample Space and Tree Diagrams Topic Test
          Downloadable resource in pdf format. 09/09/2022
          8300 GCSE Foundation Two-way Tables Mark Scheme
          Downloadable resource in pdf format. 09/09/2022
          8300 GCSE Foundation Two-way Tables Topic Test
          Downloadable resource in pdf format. 09/09/2022
          8300 GCSE Foundation Venn Diagrams Mark Scheme
          Downloadable resource in pdf format. 09/09/2022
          8300 GCSE Foundation Venn Diagrams Topic Test
          Downloadable resource in pdf format. 09/09/2022

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