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Probability (8300 - Higher - Probability)

Topic:

Probability

Specification references (in recommended teaching order)

	Specification content	Specification notes
P2	Apply ideas of randomness, fairness and equally likely events to calculate expected outcomes or multiple future experiments
P3	Relate relative expected frequencies to theoretical probability, using appropriate language and the 0 – 1 probability scale
P5	Understand that empirical unbiased samples tend towards theoretical probability distributions with increasing sample size
P6	Enumerate sets and combinations of sets systematically, using tables, grids, Venn diagrams and tree diagrams
P8	Calculate the probability of independent and dependent combined events, including using tree diagrams and other representations, and know the underlying assumptions	know when to add and when to multiply two or more probabilities
P9	Calculate and interpret conditional probabilities through representation using expected frequencies with two-way tables, tree diagrams and Venn diagrams

The subject content (above) matches that set out in the Department for Education’s Mathematics GCSE subject content and assessment objectives document.

The expectation is that:

All students will develop confidence and competence with the content identified by standard type
All students will be assessed on the content identified by the standard and the underlined type; more highly attaining students will develop confidence and competence with all of this content
Only the more highly attaining students will be assessed on the content identified by bold type. The highest attaining students will develop confidence and competence with the bold content.

Teaching resources

Conditional Probability PowerPoint 1 (part of Higher tier teaching pack)

4

Downloadable resource in ppt format. 29/04/2016

Conditional Probability PowerPoint 2 (part of Higher tier teaching pack)

1

Downloadable resource in ppt format. 29/04/2016

Two way tables & Venn diagrams resources (part of Higher tier teaching pack)

4

Downloadable resource in doc format. 29/04/2016

Diagnostic Questions - probability 1

2

AQA have teamed up with Craig Barton's Diagnostic Questions website to share free diagnostic questions assessment for our new 2017 GCSE Maths specification.21/07/2017

Diagnostic Questions - probability 2

AQA have teamed up with Craig Barton's Diagnostic Questions website to share free diagnostic questions assessment for our new 2017 GCSE Maths specification.21/07/2017

Diagnostic Questions - probability 3

AQA have teamed up with Craig Barton's Diagnostic Questions website to share free diagnostic questions assessment for our new 2017 GCSE Maths specification.21/07/2017

Diagnostic Questions - Pythagoras' theorem 1

2

AQA have teamed up with Craig Barton's Diagnostic Questions website to share free diagnostic questions assessment for our new 2017 GCSE Maths specification.21/07/2017

Diagnostic Questions - Pythagoras' theorem 3

1

AQA have teamed up with Craig Barton's Diagnostic Questions website to share free diagnostic questions assessment for our new 2017 GCSE Maths specification.21/07/2017

Diagnostic Qurestion - Pythagoras' theorem 2

AQA have teamed up with Craig Barton's Diagnostic Questions website to share free diagnostic questions assessment for our new 2017 GCSE Maths specification.21/07/2017

GCSE Bitesize: Conditional Probabilities

An introduction to conditional probability using tree diagrams.05/08/2015

Equally Likely Outcomes card sort

1

Students must sort the cards into two piles dependent on whether they describe equally likely outcomes or not. You will need to register for a TES account to access this resource, this is free of charge. 05/08/2015

Maths is Fun: Tree diagrams

4

An introduction to tree diagrams, including independent and dependent events, followed by ten online questions.05/08/2015

Nrich: Stop or Dare

A card game in which students determine an optimal strategy for playing the game.05/08/2015

Teachit Maths - Drawing Pin Probability Experiment

2

Student carry out an experiment in which they calculate the experimental probability of the pin landing 'pin up' or 'pin down'. This activity can be extended by recording the cumulative results after 10, 20, 30, 40 etc… trials and plotting the relative frequency at each stage as a line graph - this will show how the relative experimental frequency settles down to a long term theoretical probability.05/08/2015

Three Scores

1

In this dice game, each player has a different way of scoring. Students use sample space diagrams to predict who will win, then test their predictions!05/08/2015

Transum Dice Bingo

3

A classic mathematical game in which students choose their own bingo numbers and cross them off if they occur as the total of two dice.05/08/2015

Transum: Ice Cream

1

Students investigate how many ways a two scoop ice cream could be made from 6 possible flavours.05/08/2015

Transum: Venn Diagrams

19

A starter activity introducing the idea of a Venn diagram through the use of prime, square and even numbers.05/08/2015

Venn Diagram Match Up Activity Sheet

6

Activity in which students use match statements to various shaded Venn diagrams. You will need to register for a TES account to access this resource, this is free of charge. 05/08/2015

Transum: Ice Cream

1

Students investigate how many ways a two scoop ice cream could be made from 6 possible flavours.05/08/2015

Transum: Venn Diagrams

19

A starter activity introducing the idea of a Venn diagram through the use of prime, square and even numbers.05/08/2015

Transum: Venn Diagrams

19

A starter activity introducing the idea of a Venn diagram through the use of prime, square and even numbers.05/08/2015

CIMT: Theoretical and Experimental Probabilities

4

Online exercise in which students compare experimental and theoretical probabilities in various scenarios.05/08/2015

Sample Space Diagram Worksheet

6

A comprehensive worksheet of eight increasingly difficult sample space questions. You will need to register for a TES account to access this resource, this is free of charge. 05/08/2015

Teachit maths - Sample Space Scenarios

1

Four questions in which sample spaces are used to represent scenarios and to find probabilities.05/08/2015

The AND/OR rules

5

A worksheet of questions where students must apply and 'AND' and 'OR' rules to find probabilities. You will need to register for a TES account to access this resource, this is free of charge. 05/08/2015

Nrich: An Introduction to Tree Diagrams

2

An article which explains why the 'AND' and 'OR' rules for probability work, in relation to tree diagrams.05/08/2015

Probability - Coloured Counters in a Bag - Problem Sheet

1

Downloadable resource in doc format. 01/08/2010

Probability - Homework Sheet

1

Downloadable resource in doc format. 01/03/2010

Probability - Homework Sheet and Mark Scheme

1

Downloadable resource in doc format. 08/03/2010

Probability - Order cards - Lesson starter

Downloadable resource in doc format. 29/10/2010

Probability - Relative frequency - Lesson plan

Downloadable resource in doc format. 29/12/2010

Probability - Spinners - Problem Sheet

1

Downloadable resource in doc format. 01/07/2010

Probability - Three Dice - Problem Sheet

1

Downloadable resource in doc format. 01/09/2010

Probability - Two way plenary

2

Downloadable resource in xls format. 29/06/2010

Probability tree activity

Defining probability using a probability tree25/04/2010

Topic Tests

8300 GCSE Higher Combinations Mark Scheme

Downloadable resource in pdf format. 09/09/2022

8300 GCSE Higher Combinations Topic Test

Downloadable resource in pdf format. 09/09/2022

8300 GCSE Higher Probability (Harder Problems) Mark Scheme

1

Downloadable resource in pdf format. 09/09/2022

8300 GCSE Higher Probability (Harder Problems) Topic Test

1

Downloadable resource in pdf format. 09/09/2022

8300 GCSE Higher Venn Diagrams Mark Scheme

Downloadable resource in pdf format. 09/09/2022

8300 GCSE Higher Venn Diagrams Topic Test

1

Downloadable resource in pdf format. 09/09/2022

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